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By EDWARD D. MURPHY, Staff Writer Sunday, October 15, 2006

At the New England Outdoor Center, they don't worry too much about weather hurting business in the summer.

The company, which provides lodging and organizes whitewater rafting, hiking, kayaking and wildlife tours during warm weather, doesn't cancel those activities if it rains. And payments are non-refundable if a customer cancels within 45 days of a trip, even if it's because it is too cool or wet for their liking.

Winter, however, is a different season.

The folks who head to Millinocket or Caratunk from December through March are mostly interested in one thing.

"In the winter, people that go snowmobiling know what they're looking for," and that's lots of snow on the ground to roar over, said Linda Meehan, office manager for the center, who added that the company offers refunds or credits if snow is lacking.

"It dramatically affected business last year," she said. "We had a lot of people that didn't come. There was just no snow."

In Maine, more than many places, tourism is driven significantly by the weather. Except for diehard shoppers, the Maine experience is built around the outdoors.

In the summer, tourists bank on sunny skies and warm ­ but not hot ­ temperatures. If it's too cool and rainy, or too hot to provide relief from wherever those tourists live, it hurts hotels and motels, campgrounds and restaurants.

Winter needs snow to warm the hearts of the owners of tourism-related businesses. Ski areas need snow to get people on the lifts and snowmobiling centers need snow to cover the trails. That's why last winter ­ with warmer than normal temperatures and less snow than normal ­ was such a washout.

This year, the National Weather Service has essentially thrown up its hands in speculating about Maine's winter weather. Although much of the northern half of the country is expected to be warmer than normal this year, the NWS's long-range forecast said Maine has equal chances of being warmer than normal, colder than normal or just-plain normal this year. Precipitation is subject to the same toss-up prediction.

That's not much help to businesses and entire sectors that are dependent on winter weather.

A commercial weather service, however, is forecasting that northern New England is due for a return to normalcy.

"Don't put your skis away yet," said Paul Walsh, senior business meteorologist with Pennsylvania-based Planalytics, which advises clients on weather trends that may affect business.

Walsh said that his firm is less sure than the Weather Service that a strong El Nino ­ a large swath of warm water in the Pacific ­ will develop. In the past, the warm pool of water would disrupt weather patterns and often shift winter storm paths south, meaning milder weather for northern states.

Walsh said Planalytics thinks instead that winter weather will emerge earlier this year than last, noting that it started warning clients in the Great Lakes region of an outbreak of cold and snow a week ago ­ and the area was hit with an early season snowstorm Thursday and Friday.

Walsh noted that businesses other than those that rely on tourists are affected by weather. He said retailers in the Great Lakes area were able put out boots, hats, gloves and heavy coats earlier than normal to prepare for the early-season storm. Another client, Nestle Waters ­ the parent of Maine's Poland Spring bottled water ­ is advised on when warm weather is expected, so it can build up supplies, and when it will turn colder, so the company can scale back production.

L.L. Bean, not a Planalytics client, knows from experience that an early winter cold snap helps drive sales of sweaters, boots and other winter gear for Christmas shoppers.

Still, not every winter features bone-chilling cold and hip-deep snow, and some Maine businesses benefited from last year's milder than normal weather.

Dann Lewis, who heads the state's Office of Tourism, said tax receipts show that hotels, motels and inns along Maine's southern coast did well last winter. He said the state's ads in the Boston market suggesting the state as the spot for a quick winter weekend getaway apparently worked ­ and the lack of snow made it easier for Massachusetts residents to make the drive and more pleasant for an afternoon walk in Dock Square in Kennebunkport or among the outlets in Kittery.

Lewis said winter tourism probably accounts for less than 25 percent of Maine's overall tourism industry revenues. The January to March quarter generates 14 percent of the revenue from overnight visits to the state, he said, while October to December is 18 percent. The winter season in Maine is generally considered to be December through March, so winter captured a bit of both those figures.

Summer ­ July through September ­ is still the big draw, generating 44 percent of Maine tourism revenues, Lewis said, and the April-June quarter accounts for the other 24 percent.

Lewis noted that the new Center for Tourism Outreach and Research, formed by University of Maine and the University of Southern Maine, is working on a model to predict tourist traffic, which will help his office better tailor winter advertising strategies to account for variables, including weather patterns.

Some people, however, don't need meteorology degrees or in-depth analysis of spending patterns and tax receipts to know what's in store this winter. A prevailing Maine attitude is that two mild winters in a row is about as common as a gentle warm rain in January.

"We're feeling really good about the season," said Bob Meyers, executive director of the Maine Snowmobile Association and a person who roots for lots of snow in the winter. "Generally, after a really lousy winter, we get a payback ­ and this would be it."

Staff Writer Edward D. Murphy can be contacted at 791-6465 or at: emurphy@pressherald.com